Will beef become a luxury item?
Beef prices are currently only going in one direction: straight up. FIRE&FOOD investigated the reasons. A lack of successors and the resulting closure of many farms, as well as excessive bureaucracy and high production costs in Germany and the EU, are contributing to the decline in livestock numbers.
With constant demand and a reduced supply, market forces dictate rising prices. The fears of domestic farmers regarding the Mercosur agreement, which allows some South American countries to export slightly more meat to Europe than before, are unlikely to seriously impact European beef production. If Europeans continue to prioritize quality throughout the entire production process, from farmer to slaughterhouse, they will have the best chance of winning over consumers with consistently higher prices. Especially when it comes to steak, meat lovers desire a well-aged cut, tender and flavorful, which they can enjoy with a clear conscience. There is still room for improvement in the European steak market. The option of guaranteeing quality for steaks should be implemented more effectively and transparently.
Rising demand from the US market is driving up beef prices.
In 2025, the US imported a total of 1.61 million tons of beef (product weight), representing a 9% increase over the previous year. Although Argentina currently accounts for only 2.4% of these purchases, recent data indicates a significant shift is on the horizon.
Major beef suppliers to the USA (2025):
- Australia: 460,000 tons
- Canada: 275,000 tons
- Brazil: 232,000 tons
- Mexico: 230,000 tons
- New Zealand: 180,000 tons
- Argentina: 39,000 tons
In January 2026, Argentine shipments to the US exploded, increasing by 118% year-over-year to 5,900 tons in just one month. If Argentina fully utilizes its new total quota of 100,000 tons, it will rise to seventh place among global suppliers. Despite concerns from some local producers, market analysts argue that imports from Argentina will be complementary rather than competitive.
The new additional quota of 80,000 tons consists primarily of lean trimmings (90 cl). Because US grain-fed bulls produce trimmings with a very high fat content (approximately 50%), they require lean Argentinian beef for blending to produce the "lean" ground beef that US consumers demand. This process actually increases the value of domestic US trimmings without impacting the premium steak market. The American "beef shortage" is caused by a shrinking domestic herd.
Effective January 1, 2026:
- Total cattle population: 86.2 million animals (the lowest level since 1951).
- Weaned calves: 32.9 million (the lowest level since 1941).
- Market reality: High prices tempt ranchers to sell heifers for slaughter instead of keeping them for breeding, delaying a potential herd recovery until at least 2027.
Prices in the North American market are approaching record highs:
- Light fattening calves: approx. US$10.00/kg (live weight).
- Bulls/oxen ready for slaughter: approx. US$8.00/kg (carcass weight).
While prices are booming, the US beef trade deficit now exceeds 1.6 million tons per year. This trend will reach a symbolic milestone in 2025, as Brazil is projected to overtake the US as the world's leading beef producer. While the US grapples with tight supplies, global demand remains exceptionally high. Purchases from Europe, the Middle East, and Southeast Asia are rising in tandem with the US and Chinese markets. For exporters like Argentina, 2026 represents a "golden window" to capture high-end markets, while US production is expected to decline by a further 3.6% that year.
Beef prices are hovering near record highs, driven by strong demand and reduced supply. US President Donald Trump signed a proclamation on Friday raising preferential tariff quotas for Argentinian beef. US beef packers are losing money as the tight supply of cattle forces them to pay higher prices for the animals they process into hamburgers and steaks. US cattle herds have fallen to their lowest level in nearly 75 years due to a persistent drought that has dried up pastureland. A halt to US imports of Mexican cattle has further tightened supply as Washington tries to keep out a meat-eating parasite.
Source: Euromeat.com
